The United States is on road to a huge economic recovery and is rapidly approaching a major milestone in terms of employment. According to Fitch Rating, all lost jobs at the onset of Coronavirus pandemic will be restored by the end of August this year.
Recovery of lost jobs by August
The post pandemic employment recovery has continued at a remarkable and stable pace during the first quarter of 2022. Therefore, a huge number of lost jobs were recovered. Moreover, the late summer target of recovering all lost jobs from COVID-19 seems to be on the cards. The United States is only about 1.6 million jobs shy of February 2020 levels. Hence, payroll growth at an average of 400,000 jobs per month will take only four months to achieve pre-pandemic employment levels. The U.S. employers added 431,000 and 405,000 jobs during March and April respectively.
13 states have regained pre-pandemic job numbers
A large number of states have already achieved the pre-pandemic employment numbers. Moreover, only a couple of states which are lagging behind. Although, they have achieved more than 60% of the lost jobs. “Thirteen states have recovered all job losses resulting from the pandemic. The state median jobs recovery rate is 89 percent, up eight percentage points from Q4 2021. Hawaii and Louisiana are the only states to not have recovered at least 70 percent of all jobs lost during the pandemic.” Olu Sonola, Head of U.S. Regional Economics said. Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Montana, South Dakota, Utah and Colorado are the states who have recovered all lost jobs. The average unemployment rate at the end of Q1 2022 stood at 3.6%. Moreover, the unemployment rate is currently below the pre-pandemic level in 27 states.
However, there exists a huge difference in the jobs numbers if the pandemic had not erupted. Moody’s estimates that employment would be 4.5 million jobs larger than it currently is if the economy maintained pre-pandemic trend job growth. In addition, Moody’s Analytics is forecasting a return to pre-covid employment in the third quarter, which ends September 30. However, the economists are considering it a very remarkable recovery. It barely took a couple of years to regain all the lost jobs.
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